[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 30 08:42:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300843 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-301445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 300843Z - 301445Z

HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. 
ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY SLEET SHOWERS WILL PRECEED THIS ACTIVITY OVER
MUCH OF NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK...SERN KS.

UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO DISPLAY A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...PER EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE.  IN FACT...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG PVA APPEARS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM MOTLEY
COUNTY TX...SWD TO STERLING COUNTY TX. MUCH OF THIS NRN LINE
SEGMENT IS LIKELY SNOW...WITH SLEET ASSOCIATED WITH SLY ACTIVITY.

LATEST THINKING IS BROAD WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM WILL ENHANCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF HEAVY SLEET SHOWERS FROM NWRN TX...ACROSS CNTRL OK
INTO SERN KS.  AS THE COLUMN COOLS...SLEET SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...INITIALLY ACROSS WRN OK BY 12Z...AND CNTRL SECTIONS AROUND
15-16Z.  GREATEST PRECIP RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF EXPECTED 700MB TRACK...ESSENTIALLY THAT REGION
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPRIGHT CONVECTION...FAVORING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 11/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

35600099 37629933 37619725 36639607 34779679 32599793
31470111 

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