[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 290357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290357 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-290600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...PARTS OF NE OK AND SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 290357Z - 290600Z

INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. 
STRONGER CELLS COULD BRIEFLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS...BUT THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL ENOUGH NOT TO REQUIRE A WW. 
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS
OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE UNDERWAY.  

MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASING...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AND...MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
NEAR CHANUTE AS EARLY AS 05-06Z...BEFORE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH
08-09Z.

DEW POINTS NEAR 60F MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS
1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST CELLS.  GIVEN UNSATURATED MID-LEVELS...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE THEY BECOME
UNDERCUT BY SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE OZARK
PLATEAU.

..KERR.. 11/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37069666 37709625 38369538 38479470 37599440 36689480
36189584 36459664 

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