[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 27 00:14:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270016 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-270515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA...NERN NEB

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 270016Z - 270515Z

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z...AND WILL DECREASE FROM W TO EAST THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS FROM SERN SD INTO NRN IA NEAR 850MB FRONT AND IS CONVECTIVE
WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER WRN NEB WILL KEEP WINDS JUST ABOVE STABLE SURFACE LAYER
RELATIVELY BACKED ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING ZONE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE
OF 100-500 J/KG WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MAY RESULT IN VERY SMALL HAIL. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS ALSO
SUGGEST LOCALIZED AREAS OF MDT FREEZING RAIN WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
PASSAGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN 04-06Z.

..JEWELL.. 11/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...

42859599 42579656 42819816 43409813 44129707 44439579
44459481 44269476 43679492 43249536 