[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 5 21:25:03 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 052127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052126 
OKZ000-TXZ000-052230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 052126Z - 052230Z

TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN OK AND
NWRN TX AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE HAIL
AROUND ONE INCH...AND GUSTY WINDS. WHILE STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TEMPORAL AND AREAL COVERAGE AND A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

THE MOST INTENSE CELL AT PRESENT APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED NEAR WEAK
WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER WILBARGER COUNTY TX. THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING
TX PNHDL. MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW...MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A
FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT AS THIS STORM MOVES EAST FROM
WILBARGER COUNTY TO CLAY COUNTY TX OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL ALSO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR
BELT ACROSS NCNTRL TX THIS EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS. WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
DESPITE AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 11/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

32449897 32499971 32570005 32780039 33140036 33560021
34019994 34849945 35119892 35179786 34879699 34429629
33959589 33649578 33409605 33149737 32939811 