[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051823 
OKZ000-TXZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CST SUN NOV 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 051823Z - 052100Z

TSTMS WITH HAIL MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE AS VIGOROUS CONVECTION
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

STRONG VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CROSSING THE TX PNHDL ATTM. DPVA AND STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WERE ACTING IN CONCERT WITH MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO PROVOKE A BAND OF
ELEVATED TSTMS FROM WHEELER COUNTY TX TO CUSTER COUNTY OK.
MEANWHILE... BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN TX AND SWRN OK HAVE
ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THESE AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CU FIELD
BECOMING MORE AGITATED ACROSS THIS ZONE AND MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG ABOVE WEAKLY CAPPED/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...AND AS STRONGER
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACTS ON THE APEX OF LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD
MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND HAIL PRODUCTION FROM A
FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTH TX WITH TIME. EVOLUTION
OF THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH IS POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

..CARBIN.. 11/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

33539870 33689928 33780012 33800058 33890084 34120096
34380079 34820032 35000004 35189972 35479906 35439797
34929695 34599598 33809590 33399614 33079690 33359781