[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 23:53:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 302353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302352 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NW OK...SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...

VALID 302352Z - 310115Z

TWO MCSS...ONE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ANOTHER IN SERN KS...WITH AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL IN BETWEEN ACROSS NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
VERY SLOW PROGRESS EWD/SWD. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED WITH SERN KS MCS AND IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITH TX
PANHANDLE MCS.

EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER MCS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE HAVE A
HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REPORTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD VERY SLOWLY EWD/BACKBUILD SWWD IN AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
MLCAPES. MOST INTENSE CELLS SHOULD BE ACROSS BAILEY/CASTRO/SWISHER
COUNTIES NEWD TO HEMPHILL/WHEELER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
ISOLATED SWD MOVING SUPERCELL IN BECKHAM COUNTY OK SHOULD CONTINUE
TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WHILE BEING
ABSORBED INTO TX PANHANDLE MCS.

FURTHER NE...VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW FROM THE
LINEAR MCS ACROSS SERN KS HAS PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
LINE. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST HOUR OF THE LINEAR MCS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING THIS COLD POOL...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCS.

..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

35530302 36010200 36690068 36949957 36969839 37119774
37729711 38629606 38419558 37809568 36949594 36549669
35989772 35209889 34819959 34460006 34060124 33850214
33820305 

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