[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 22:20:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 302220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302219 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN VT/MA/CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422...

VALID 302219Z - 302315Z

...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP 
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR...

ARC OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD POOL FROM DELAWARE
COUNTY NY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TO BERKSHIRE COUNTY MA.
COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 30KT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOUNTER WARM AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...PRIMARILY
FROM NERN PA TO SERN NY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DESPITE GENERALLY
WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME CONVECTIVE-SCALE
ORGANIZATION TO THE COMPLEX...COUPLED WITH MODEST DCAPE
VALUES...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS...AND SOME HAIL...INTO THE SRN PORTION OF WATCH 422.

GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR...AND TIME OF
DAY...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

41457338 41397473 41037522 41517608 42637599 43347572
44067521 44097406 43237225 41507277 

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