[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 18:50:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 301848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301848 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL KS INTO FAR NWRN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301848Z - 302045Z

ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN
KS/OK PANHANDLE AND MAY EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
SFC-BASED FURTHER S. FURTHER E...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM P28 TO SLN. STEEP LAPSE-RATES AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS SWRN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...S OF DECAYING MCS NOW IN S-CNTRL NEB. STORMS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...FROM PYX TO
P28 TO SLN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES IN THIS ZONE
FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT.

ACTIVITY FURTHER E...FROM BARBER TO MCPHERSON COUNTIES KS...ARE IN A
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /0-6 KM AROUND 20 KT PER HBR
PROFILER/...STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTER TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

35859961 35290021 35050088 35000180 35500184 36040162
36930110 37660037 37899927 38419840 38879782 39439740
39679703 39419672 39139678 38309705 37499760 36579864 