[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 17:23:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 301722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301721 
NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN VT...WRN MA...WRN CT...NERN PA...NRN
NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301721Z - 301915Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY
DEVELOP SWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME ERN NY.
ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING ACROSS NERN NY INTO NWRN VT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD NERN NY...WHICH MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODEST 15 TO 20 KT 700-500 MB FLOW AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S. VERTICAL SHEAR
IS WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

43257535 44747457 44877335 44007280 42327265 40787325
40487445 41217547 