[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 301613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301613 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-301815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301613Z - 301815Z

STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS NERN IA INTO SRN WI. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
S INTO NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S CNTRL WI THEN SWWD AS A STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH ERN AND SRN IA WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN IA
EWD THROUGH SRN WI. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SRN WI IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY.
WEAKENING CAP AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN
IA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION HAS BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN WI...AND THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. FARTHER S ACROSS NRN IL
FORCING FOR INITIATION WILL BE LESS FOCUSED...BUT WEAK CAP AND
STRONGER HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK.
HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30 KT 500 MB FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MCV WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND PROFILES AND POSSIBLY BETTER
STORM ORGANIZATION OVER NRN IL...BUT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN
MULTICELLULAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MANAGE
TO DEVELOP S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY.

..DIAL.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

41609130 43309085 43838806 42508799 41538770 40809048