[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 09:32:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300930 
KSZ000-COZ000-301230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0430 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...SWRN AND EXTREME
W-CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SVR TSTM POTENTIAL. 

VALID 300930Z - 301230Z

RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER REGION
WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- SOMEWHAT DIFFUSED
BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
-- EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD ACROSS RSL/HYS AREA...TO BETWEEN
LBL-EHA...TO BETWEEN DHT-CAO.  FRONT MAY DRIFT WNWWD OVER KS AND
OK/TX PANHANDLES.  BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND WAA ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS
MAY SUSTAIN/ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS AHEAD OF FRONT.

NW OF FRONT...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENT 850 MB FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER SERN CO AND FAR WRN KS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PARCELS LIFTED TO LFC...AMIDST FAVORABLE SELY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION INTO BOTTOM OF CONVECTIVE LIFTED LAYER.  MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD
ACROSS NWRN NM/SWRN CO.  COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT IN
FOREGOING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PLUME...BOTH FROM CONVECTIVE TOPS
AND FROM ASCENT WITHIN NON CONVECTIVE CLOUD BEARING LAYERS.  THIS
INDICATES LARGE SCALE LIFT REASONABLY IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS
REGION UNDER COMBINED INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF THAT
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL WAA...AND UVV BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET MAX. MLCAPES IN RUC SOUNDINGS INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 2500
J/KG THROUGH 13Z...BUT WITH DECREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR RELATED TO
WEAKENING SELYS WITH TIME.  STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38210440 38900358 39450179 39420074 39129999 38639956
37829925 37349977 37120101 37080246 37610412 