[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 29 23:05:45 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 292304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292303 
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-300030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NERN IA...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...420...

VALID 292303Z - 300030Z

WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FROM ERN MN/NERN IA ACROSS WRN WI. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
CIRCULATION AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS MN PORTIONS OF WATCH 419
WHERE 40KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ADDITIONALLY...A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LOWER INSTABILITY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CLOSER
TO THE LAKE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THIS AREA WAS WEAKER THAN
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY... EXPECT
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
EAST INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW 419...AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 420 OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

42259174 42259482 45379405 48659391 48119097 45379062 