[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 29 20:35:07 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 292032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292032 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-292230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS/W OK/NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292032Z - 292230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM GBD TO NW OF CDS
TO LBB. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
AROUND 2000 TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND AT A DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION NW OF CDS IS
EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE WEAK WIND SPEEDS AND LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLUAR IN NATURE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE
MODERATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE REGION...STORMS
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL APPROACH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG BY
00Z...WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..LEVIT.. 05/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

38809816 38729715 38159709 37379753 36769771 35649813
35039826 34239866 33699913 33279974 33160017 33170065
33240135 33890115 34410072 34920028 35450008 36349978
36909956 37419901 38079847 38489822 