[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 29 20:04:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 292003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292002 
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MN...PARTS OF WRN WI/NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...

VALID 292002Z - 292200Z

SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  CONTINUE WW 419.

SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE PRIMARY FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IN
WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST HAS AIDED ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF ST. CLOUD INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 30/00Z.

EMBEDDED WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
3000 TO 4000 J/KG...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY
NEXT FEW HOURS.  EVENTUALLY...MERGING COLD POOLS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF
DULUTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY 22-23Z.

FARTHER SOUTH...DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING...WEAKENING
INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING LIFT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST  OF FORT
DODGE IA...BUT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MAY BE INHIBITED
BY STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST
MISSOURI.

..KERR.. 05/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

47819425 49559384 50499379 49989130 48929036 47769050
46229227 45139267 43919312 42899399 42719462 43909423
44829399 46259427 