[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291622 
MNZ000-291815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291622Z - 291815Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WW
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLIER.

ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA.  WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG.  LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS
STILL SUBSTANTIAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING INSOLATION.

ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH PRIMARY
DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS...INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
18-19Z...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF ST. CLOUD
INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA...THROUGH 21Z.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY NOT BE STRONG...BUT MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

..KERR.. 05/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

48239595 48869588 49629545 50709549 50819398 50289254
49919180 48989218 48479258 47419320 46289356 44319433
44689510 45459571 46529593 47589595