[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 29 15:39:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 291537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291537 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...W CNTRL/NW MO INTO W CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291537Z - 291700Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL/AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ONGOING WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...APPEARS
MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET
STREAK...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY BASED ABOVE A CAPPING
INVERSION LAYER...BUT UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL PROFILES WITH CAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DESPITE WEAKLY
SHEARED FLOW REGIME.

FORCING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH/
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE
KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES AREAS...THROUGH THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. 
MODELS SUGGEST THIS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY WEAKEN THEREAFTER...BUT
INHIBITION MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED BY THAT TIME FOR CONTINUING
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

..KERR.. 05/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...

40979541 41869517 42979512 43349380 43019287 41919258
40269286 38759434 37869515 37729595 39219603 