[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291007 
NYZ000-291200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/WRN NY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291007Z - 291200Z

AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW
REGION OF TSTM CLUSTER THAT WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN LAKE ONTARIO
AS OF 0945Z.  STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD
ACROSS AREA BOUNDED BY SERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ROC...UCA...BGM...ELM. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF
EVENT AND SMALL TIME/SPATIAL SCALE.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SHOW UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS BOTH SFC AND ALOFT OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...WITH ALMOST
NO BUOYANCY...WHEN MODIFIED FOR LATEST SFC OBS. 
HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MOIST WLY LLJ -- UP TO ABOUT 30 KT AS
INDICATED FROM BUF VWP -- SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SATURATION AROUND 850
MB LEVEL...AND STEEPENED LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH WAA. 
RESULT SHOULD BE NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. 
SMALL ZONE OF ENHANCED 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENED MESOBETA SCALE HEIGHT GRADIENT
ON SW SIDE OF AN MCV...PRODUCED INITIALLY BY MCS THAT DEVELOPED
ABOUT 30 HOURS AGO ACROSS WI.  THIS MAY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ENOUGH TO AID ORGANIZATION OF ELEVATED/MULTICELLULAR TSTMS AND
INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

43527743 43477688 43597653 43767618 43707562 43137536
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