[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 28 23:45:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 282343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282342 
SDZ000-NEZ000-290115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SCNTRL/SERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282342Z - 290115Z

POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS
OF NERN NEB INTO SERN SD THIS EVENING. WHILE CAP REMAINS QUITE
STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM IN THE
AREA WILL QUICKLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS POSSIBLE.

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS TRIPLE-POINT LOW NEAR ONL WITH DRY LINE
EXTENDING SWD AND COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SERN
SD. AIR MASS NEAR THESE FEATURES WAS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CAP
REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INHIBITION HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS WEAKEST POINT GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE LOW/DRYLINE AND
FRONT. STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AID STORM INITIATION NEAR THE
BOUNDARIES APPEARS SUBTLE ATTM WITH MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT FOCUSED
FARTHER WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN
AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE TO UPDRAFTS BREACHING THE CAP. AT
PRESENT...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS
NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF SEVERE STORM FORMATION
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

44779731 44689796 43459879 42999895 42589911 41929861
42219757 43229706 