[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 28 22:43:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 282242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282242 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-290045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN WY....NEB PNHDL....WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282242Z - 290045Z

CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...TSTMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SERN WY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGES FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN U.S.
TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.

LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED
WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT DUE TO STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WAS
RESULTING IN MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEB
AND SWRN SD ATTM. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT OVER SERN
WY WILL MOVE INTO THIS AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BLACK
HILLS WILL EXIST WITHIN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
LEVEL ELY/NELY FLOW TOPPED BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND FORCING FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE. ACTIVITY COULD POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE
MCS ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH THE EVENING AND A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41630241 41400370 41820446 43120442 44940372 45650260
45580135 44680025 