[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 27 22:19:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 272215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272215 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX...WRN OK...SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272215Z - 280015Z

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS FAR SE
CO...THE OK PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE
TROUGH...A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S F IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
IN WEST TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE ERN
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION DIMINISHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND
MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
AND MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

31830073 31660188 32330194 34430129 37980000 37939868
36099931 