[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 27 21:29:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 272126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272126 
NDZ000-SDZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272126Z - 272330Z

STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND
AND NRN SD. AS STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED BY 22Z ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS SCNTRL ND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN ND. SFC DEWPOINTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY GONE EAST OF BISMARCK
AND SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER IN NRN SD. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS NEAR BISMARCK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING BETWEEN PIERRE AND
MOBRIDGE SD. AS THE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER...RAPID THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS
SUPERCELLS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN
ND...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEWD PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

48419813 47209763 45599796 44639912 44540065 45370153
47330157 48590065 48809931 