[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 270830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270830 
IAZ000-MOZ000-271100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IA...NRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 270830Z - 271100Z

LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN MO.  OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.  ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS
TOO MRGL FOR WW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

VWP DATA IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT INDICATES 30-40 KT SLY
LLJ...ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. 
MOTION OF LINE...THEREFORE...SHOULD BE NEARLY EQUIVALENT TO
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VECTOR...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE ATTM.  ONCE
ACTIVITY MOVES E OF ABOUT I-35...UPSTREAM TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS MOIST...BASED ON 00Z 850 MB ANALYSES...RUC SOUNDINGS AND
GPS PW DATA.  SRN PORTION OF LINE ASTRIDE MO BORDER MAY SURVIVE
LONGER SINCE AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS MORE BUOYANT OVER NRN MO. 
LINEAR ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD FAVOR
SEVERE WIND OVER HAIL FOR MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LAYER OF
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL MITIGATE DOWNDRAFT
SPEEDS IN MOST AREAS...LEAVING DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ISOLATED/SPORADIC.  SFC STATIONS OVER WHICH THIS LINE HAS PASSED
SINCE MO RIVER BEAR THIS OUT...WITH MEASURED SUB-SVR GUSTS IN 22-41
KT RANGE.  A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH SFC WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO DO
MINOR DMG.  ISOLATED HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM MOST VIGOROUS
CORES -- MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS IN DIAMETER.

..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

42249492 42349385 42309260 41369216 39999237 39829447
41009431