[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 27 07:54:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270752 
NDZ000-MTZ000-270945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ND EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SRN AND EXTREME ERN PORTIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411...

VALID 270752Z - 270945Z

WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER WW ATTM...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY TO SVR
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
OVERALL WEAKENING TRENDS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS AND DIMINISHING
PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT...SOME OR ALL OF WW MAY
BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL ND BETWEEN BIS
AND SERN PORTIONS LAKE SAKAKAWEA.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH
SECONDARY LOW OVER NWRN SD AND INTO E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WY. 
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS NEWD FROM ND LOW ACROSS NERN ND
AND EXTREME SERN MB.  FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND BUT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE
FOR ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MUCAPES DIMINISHING GREATLY FROM SFC FRONT WWD...FROM AROUND 2000
J/KG ACROSS ERN ND TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER WRN PORTIONS ORIGINAL
WW.  BUOYANCY DIMINISHES TO NEAR ZERO W OF WEAK BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR GDV NEWD ACROSS RENVILLE COUNTY. 
LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLY STEEP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED TSTMS REMAINING POSSIBLE AMIDST 40-50 KT LLJ AS OBSERVED IN
BIS VWP.  LIFT APPEARS WEAK AWAY FROM FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC
LOW...HOWEVER....INDICATING LIMITED COVERAGE FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DOES DEVELOP.

..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

47510412 48170281 48750183 49050115 49019789 48569789
48549832 48159829 47869855 46599845 46640058 46400059
46250102 46390136 46610135 46630375 46520405 