[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 26 18:14:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261757 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN DELMARVA...SE VA...CNTRL AND ERN NC/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261757Z - 261930Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY NEXT FEW HOURS.  

STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG/TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS A BIT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG HEATING...FROM THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. 
MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEEDED 90F...NOW RANGES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG
...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ONCE ACTIVITY FINALLY
INITIATES.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...OR IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER MID/UPPER FORCING ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.  AT ANY RATE...A RAPID INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.

VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION IS RATHER MODERATE IN
STRENGTH...BUT 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  LARGE HAIL
LIKELY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING NORFOLK
VA/RALEIGH AND FAYETTEVILLE NC/COLUMBIA SC AND POINTS EASTWARD.

..KERR.. 05/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

34648210 35338160 36028026 37727801 38527708 38637548
38057500 36367541 35107597 34097777 32778031 33498200 