[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 261610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261610 
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-261815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261610Z - 261815Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STRONGER STORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.  THIS
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE 18-19Z. 
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED IN HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 55-60F
RANGE. MID-LEVELS ARE COOL...BUT NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS
IS NOT SUPPORTING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH SEEM LIKELY TO
LIMIT CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS FAIRLY
MODERATE AS WELL...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED
TO ISOLATED HAIL...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS.

..KERR.. 05/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

43017427 44317367 43907318 43477287 42527202 41727221
41367234 40797314 40907352 40877388 41497395