[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 26 08:26:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 260816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260816 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK...SERN KS.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...

VALID 260816Z - 261015Z

PRIMARY THREAT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN RATES
LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...AS SLOW MOVING TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/TRAIN OVER SOME OF SAME AREAS OF NEWTON/JASPER
COUNTIES...WITH SOME OF LAWRENCE/MCDONALD COUNTIES POSSIBLY BEING
AFFECTED AS WELL.  SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS CONFINED TO MRGL
HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE.  BECAUSE OF ISOLATED
NATURE AND SMALL COVERAGE OF ANY REMAINING SVR THREAT...BULK OF WW
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR 1-2 HOURS ON A COUNTY BY COUNTY BASIS IF
NECESSARY.

REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN MO CONVECTION MOVING WWD ACROSS PORTIONS CRAIG
COUNTY OK...AND LARGER/STRONGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KS/OK BORDER
MCS CONTINUING TO SURGE EWD ACROSS OSAGE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES. 
ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING OR SHORTLY AFTER COLLISION OF
THESE BOUNDARIES...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AT 830-845Z  OVER ERN
NOWATA/WRN CRAIG COUNTIES OK AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY KS. 25-30 KT LOW
LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC -- AS EVIDENT IN HKL PROFILER -- SHOULD
HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AMIDST RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 11-15C IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND
PW 1.1-1.4 INCH FROM GPS DATA. ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG MAY
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NE ACROSS SERN
KS AS WELL.  MAIN THREAT WOULD BE MRGL HAIL....WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEARS ONLY 20-30 KT.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

37879574 37599426 36729352 36339388 35889532 36149660
37139593 