[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 26 07:14:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 260712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260712 
KSZ000-OKZ000-260845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN KS AND NRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399...

VALID 260712Z - 260845Z

PRIND REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8Z AS SCHEDULED.
ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ISOLATED/MRGL SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NOW THAT BULK OF TSTM COMPLEX IS
LOCATED WELL BEHIND ITS OWN GUST FRONT...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO.
 REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AS OF 7Z SHOW OUTFLOW ARC EXTENDING FROM
ERN PORTIONS BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES KS SWWD ACROSS SRN KAY...NWRN
NOBLE AND NRN GARFIELD COUNTIES OK.  GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
OUTFLOW HAVE BEEN BELOW 50 KT SVR CRITERIA AT ASOS AND OK MESONET
STATIONS...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS GUST FRONT SURGES FARTHER EWD AND
SWD AWAY FROM PARENT CONVECTION.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW
POOL...ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION FROM COMANCHE/WOODS COUNTY LINE
EWD.  THESE TSTMS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ...EVIDENT IN VCI
PROFILER DATA. MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG MAY REMAIN INVOF DECELERATING
CENTRAL PORTIONS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N-CENTRAL OK...WEAKENING TO
1000-1500 J/KG N OF BOUNDARY OVER SW KS.  LLJ IS FCST TO VEER
SOMEWHAT AND REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NW OK...WEAKENING WITH EWD
EXTENT.  STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH WWD EXTENT WOULD FAVOR
NEWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF WRN PORTION OF MCS...AS OPPOSED TO
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ORIGINAL MCS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

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38579682 38299624 37219604 36609632 36209717 36179828
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