[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 24 00:16:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240011 
NEZ000-KSZ000-240215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NE...N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN
KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...

VALID 240011Z - 240215Z

SRN END OF NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS -- NEAR NEB BORDER
-- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD-ENEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS WW WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  VIS
IMAGERY...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN THROUGH N-CENTRAL KS AS SFC COLD
FRONT APCHS PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE.  SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
EXTEND SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE SFC DIABATIC COOLING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS CINH.  ADDITIONAL
OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MRGL ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND 00Z DDC
RAOB.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE E OF FRONT/DRYLINE
AFTER SUNSET WHEN LLJ INCREASES...AND DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
INCREASES SWD AND EWD BECAUSE OF MORE WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW COMPONENT. 
BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY INITIALLY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND OUTFLOW/COLD
POOL PRONE BECAUSE OF DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...HOWEVER SOME
DISCRETE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND BECOME
SUSTAINED ON NOCTURNAL LLJ.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

37790058 38509988 39719954 40779863 40979643 40009647
39999622 39559624 39409672 39049637 38839648 38859688
38599694 38589788 37450077 