[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 23:29:44 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 232325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232325 
NDZ000-MTZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382...

VALID 232325Z - 240130Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 382
/ERN MT/ DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER WRN ND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN A
THREAT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 382.

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SFC LOW OVER NRN FALLON COUNTY NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
AS THIS ACTIVITY ROTATES WWD AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IT ENCOUNTERS
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. CELL
TRAINING AND MODEST PW/S WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA. WHERE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNAFFECTED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION ...THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND JUST WEST
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER FAR ERN MT. FURTHER EAST...MID LEVEL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER SWRN ND MAY
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND POSE A MARGINAL DMGG WIND THREAT OVER NWRN
ND /ERN PORTION OF WW 382/...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY
/INCLUDING HIGHER DCAPE/ EXISTS IN THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

48940495 48730629 46340595 46500243 49050224 