[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 22:08:12 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 232202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232201 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-240000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WCENTRAL/NWRN MN AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232201Z - 240000Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER NERN
SD/WCENTRAL MN WILL MOVE NWD INTO NWRN MN/ERN ND OVER THE NEXT 3
HRS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL THROUGH 00Z AND THUS A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. AS GREATER MID LEVEL
FLOW /AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE/ APPROACHES LATER
THIS EVENING...A WW MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 00Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM
WCENTRAL MN INTO NWRN MN/NERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED IN
THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. CONVECTION WAS
INCREASING OVER NERN SD/WCENTRAL MN IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WAA
ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO
PREDOMINANT CLOUD LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 DEG C/KM/ OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS VERY
MARGINAL /25-30 KTS/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE AREA. SINCE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS...ONLY A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

47029544 47679586 47999674 47599759 47019802 46369787
45729719 45199654 44639599 44769517 45109491 45809489 