[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 20:09:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 232005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232004 
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WA...FAR NERN ORE AND THE ID PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232004Z - 232200Z

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE BLUE MTNS IN NERN
ORE/FAR SERN WA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A SVR HAIL
THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL STG/ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF NERN WA. ONLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS
ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND THUS A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A SFC
LOW OVER NERN ORE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY WLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE MTNS. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
NEWD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER 50S/ ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA
RIVER AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS OF ERN WA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
WA/ORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SUPPORT MUCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
A GREATER SVR THREAT IS RELATIVELY MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /30
KTS/ PER RECENT VWP AND FCST SOUNDING DATA.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...

48861767 48801908 48471917 47781830 47401800 46671757
46201787 45821801 45431728 45821600 46751516 47751589
48871680 