[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 04:37:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230432 
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-230600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...NERN NM...OK PANHANDLE...WRN
KS...WRN NEB...NWRN TX PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...

VALID 230432Z - 230600Z

TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD 35-45 KT
ACROSS WW AREA.  LEADING BAND -- EVIDENT AT 415Z FROM WALLACE COUNTY
KS NNWWD TOWARD PHILLIPS COUNTY CO -- IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
GLD-MCK-OGA AREA WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL.  MOST INTENSE/SOLID PORTION OF SECOND
BAND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS LAA-LIC-GLD TRIANGLE DURING SAME TIME
FRAME...HOWEVER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN SWD
ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS WITH TIME.

NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL RECOVERY MAY OCCUR BEHIND INITIAL BAND
ACROSS NERN CO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTRIBUTION OF 40-50 KT LLJ TO
ISENTROPIC ATOP OUTFLOW POOL.  HOWEVER...PRIND DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WITH SECOND BAND WILL DECREASE WITH NWWD EXTENT...AND
INCREASING DISTANCE FROM OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL THETAE....BECAUSE OF MORE
DEEPLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITING DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO
SFC.  AIR MASS ACROSS WRN KS AND SERN CO IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM...ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT THROUGH WW.  EFFECTIVE PARCELS
SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED NEAR SFC IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...WITH
MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE NEAR MOIST AXIS...OVER NWRN KS AND
SWRN NEB.  FARTHER S...STRONG/MRGLLY SVR TSTMS MAY CLIP NERN TX
PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY DALLAM/HARTLEY COUNTIES...HOWEVER
BEST-ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER N IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO FAVORABLE MOISTURE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

36990382 38000320 38900325 39610405 41170271 42950279
42960011 40360015 36990156 35530326 