[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 02:40:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230237 
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN NM...E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN
KS...OK PANHANDLE..WRN TX PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376...

VALID 230237Z - 230330Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SERN CO...AND
MAY SOON SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS AND WRN OK PANHANDLE.  WW
REPLACEMENT OR ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 3Z...WHICH IS
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME FOR REMAINDER WW 376.

BAND OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS SSEWD ACROSS NERN NM IS
 CONSOLIDATING IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND CG LIGHTNING
PATTERNS...INDICATING OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS
STRONGEST SUPPORTIVE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- ALSO LIFTS NEWD. 
MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL WAA AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
INCREASE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING
SELY LLJ...ALREADY EVIDENT IN PROFILER/VWP DATA.
CROSS SECTION OF 00Z RAOBS ALONG DDC-AMA-MAF LINE...AS WELL AS
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIER
IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS WITH SWD EXTENT INTO TX PANHANDLE AND ERN
NM...CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAKER MUCAPE...AND THEREFORE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE.  THEREFORE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR NEW WW IS
FROM OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NERN NM NWD.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

38690596 38590209 40460205 40450261 41700237 41560082
38520025 37450065 36270172 35790249 35660277 35470305
35200347 34880383 36020528 37020568 