[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 22 16:06:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221559 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-221800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN OK/NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221559Z - 221800Z

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF MCV SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AIRMASS HEATS/DESTABILIZES.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL ORGANIZED/ARCING LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER S CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED MCV.  DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL YIELD A MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER...MORNING
VAD/PROFILER DATA CONFIRMS MODEL PFC DEPICTION OF VERY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION.  

DESPITE THIS...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE INVOF
MCV.  GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP...EXPECT
STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/BRIEFLY DAMAGING
WINDS WITHIN A CONFINED CORRIDOR ORIENTED WNW-ESE AHEAD OF THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE MCV.

..GOSS.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38529716 38269508 37489295 35979233 35529342 36029600
37059838 