[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 22 03:47:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220342 
KSZ000-COZ000-220545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN AND W-CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220342Z - 220545Z

CLUSTER OF STG-SVR TSTMS OVER NWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN-CENTRAL KS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCNL HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  AREA WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT WW
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MOST FAVORED TRACK FOR MCS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LOW LEVEL MOIST
AXIS AND NRN PORTION OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE.  LATEST SFC...925 AND 850 MB CHARTS
SHOWED THIS AXIS NEARLY COLOCATED AT THOSE LEVELS ALONG LINE FROM
SGF...HUT...40 ESE GLD.  DIFFUSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR HLC ESEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL MO.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WILL
SUPPORT MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG IN PRESTORM AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NWRN KS THROUGH 6Z.  ALTHOUGH SBCINH IS STRONG AT OVER 200
J/KG IN MOST AREAS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGH THAT LAYER
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC. 
INITIALLY 30-35 KT SELY LLJ IS FCST TO VEER FROM SELY TOWARD SLY
DIRECTION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER 6Z.  EXPECT STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOWS 30-50 KT BEFORE 6Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY REMAINING
CONVECTION THEREAFTER TO PROPAGATE MORE TOWARD SLY OR EVEN SWLY
DIRECTION.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION MAY CONTINUE ATOP
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN KS...WHICH
IN TURN MAY FURTHER DRIVE OUTFLOW AIR MASS SSEWD.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

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