[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 22 00:32:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220028 
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN-SRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NWRN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...

VALID 220028Z - 220230Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
WRN PORTIONS WW.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG...TOWARD CHA AREA AND NWRN GA. 
THIS PROJECTED PATH IS ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE ANALYZED FROM SRN SC TO NWRN AR.  THIS AREA IS ALONG SRN EDGE
OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...WITH 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
50-100 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH.  SFC-BASED BUOYANCY GRADUALLY SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AND DIABATIC COOLING AT GROUND LEVEL...THOUGH
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN SUPPORT OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  ANY
ACTIVITY MOVING S OF WW SHOULD QUICKLY ENTER LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER CINH...SMALLER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR....BASED ON MODIFIED BHM RAOB AND
RUC SOUNDINGS S OF MID TN.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693
35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628
34618698 34798788 35258974 