[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 22 00:24:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220021 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220021Z - 220215Z

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND WESTERN KS THIS EVENING...WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.

AT 0015Z...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM FAR NORTHEAST CO
INTO SOUTHWEST NEB NEAR MCCOOK AND FAR NORTHWEST KS NEAR GOODLAND.
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL
KS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH AT LEAST AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

GIVEN RECENT TRENDS NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO CONJUNCTION...SUSTAINABILITY
WILL BE ENHANCED IF STORMS CONGLOMERATE/ORGANIZE A MESOSCALE COLD
POOL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN PRESENCE OF WARM/MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PER LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KS.

RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER IS INDICATIVE OF AROUND 35 KTS OF VERTICAL
SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE RELATIVELY
ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS. IN SPITE OF STRONG AFTERNOON
MIXING...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS HELD/MODESTLY INCREASED FROM
CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST KS...SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG OR GREATER IN THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR PER 00Z
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM DODGE CITY/NORTH PLATTE. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO
PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

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