[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 21 20:16:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 212010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212009 
MTZ000-WYZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212009Z - 212215Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS STORMS BUILDING
ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE BIGHORNS IN NORTHEAST WY...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY. WARM AND MOIST /UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS/ NATURE OF AMBIENT AIRMASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MT AND FAR NORTHEAST WY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS /AIDED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW/...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

45020442 43670443 44420781 45141017 46210927 46080683
45580494 