[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Sun May 21 20:16:32 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 212010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212009
MTZ000-WYZ000-212215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 212009Z - 212215Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS STORMS BUILDING
ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE BIGHORNS IN NORTHEAST WY...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY. WARM AND MOIST /UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS/ NATURE OF AMBIENT AIRMASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MT AND FAR NORTHEAST WY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS /AIDED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW/...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
..GUYER.. 05/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...
45020442 43670443 44420781 45141017 46210927 46080683
45580494
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