[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151813 
FLZ000-151945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151813Z - 151945Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE SERN COAST OF FL. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAS SHOWN A LARGE MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF
2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40
KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
LACKING IN MIAMI VAD PROFILER...LOCALIZED INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
STORMS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

25698085 26368101 26958093 27278028 26957998 26197995
25458016 25318078 

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