[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151744 
NCZ000-VAZ000-151915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151744Z - 151915Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND 
SERN VA THROUGH MID-AFTN.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTN
FOR PARTS OF ERN NC.

RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN NC...SUPPORTING THE RUC TRENDS OF TRACKING
THE SFC LOW FROM OVER UPSTATE SC INTO ERN NC BY LATE AFTN. 
RESULTANT INCREASE IN SFC CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY.  AIR MASS IS NOT
TERRIBLY UNSTABLE OWING TO MORNING CLOUD COVER...BUT AS AN UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATES NEWD...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. 
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH
EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN VA AND
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BY EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR
/AROUND 150-170 M2/S2/ FOR THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

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