[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141808 
TXZ000-NMZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN NM AND EXTREME WRN TX
PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141808Z - 142045Z

TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM AND SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...WITH NET SWD MOTION ACROSS PORTIONS
NERN AND E-CENTRAL NM. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP WRN PORTIONS
HARTLEY/OLDHAM/DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN TX PANHANDLE AS WELL.  HAIL
AND OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SEVERAL CB AND NUMEROUS TCU ARE EVIDENT FROM SERN UNION COUNTY NM
WWD OVER PORTIONS RIO ARRIBA COUNTY...WHERE DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF
HIGHER TERRAIN HAS QUICKLY REMOVED CINH.  SFC ANALYSES INDICATE
POSTFRONTAL FLOW VEERING WITH TIME TO MORE ELY COMPONENT...A TREND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ENHANCE
BOTH UPSLOPE LIFT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND ALSO ELONGATE 0-3
KM HODOGRAPHS. RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN STORMS RIGHTWARD-MOVING TOWARD S OR
SSW...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO ABOUT 250 J/KG.  VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF FLOW VECTORS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-MIDLEVELS...ENHANCING
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR ALSO.  SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO 70S F AND DEW
POINTS LOW-MID 40S F YIELD MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF NERN NM.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

36070644 36300559 35950428 36040364 35960323 35540276
34570295 34420336 34450345 34450524 35030618 

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