[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 17:25:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141723 
LAZ000-TXZ000-141930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA...S-CENTRAL/SE TX.L

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349...

VALID 141723Z - 141930Z

BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FCST TO SHIFT TO WRN PORTION WW WITH MUCH
OF SABINE RIVER REGION EWD BEING SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY BOWING
MCS THAT HAS CLEARED LCH REGION.  ERN PORTION MCS WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF VERMILION PARISH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE.

AT 17Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY NWWD
ACROSS TRINITY BAY AND NRN HARRIS COUNTY...THEN NNWWD NEAR I-45. 
THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD AND MERGE WITH INITIALLY
SEPARATE CONFLUENCE LINE...WHICH IS ANALYZED FROM GLS WNWWD ACROSS
FT BEND/AUSTIN COUNTIES...TO NEAR WILLIAMSON/MILAM COUNTY LINE. 
COMBINED OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE LINE OVER HOU AREA MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROPAGATION OF ERN PORTION OF ANOTHER MCS EVIDENT
AT 17Z BETWEEN LEON AND CORYELL COUNTIES.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
SWD AND SEWD INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF
CONFLUENCE LINE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 862 FOR ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 9 DEG C/KM AND
70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX...AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX.  NRN EXTENT OF STRONG CAPPING
EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP RAOB SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL S OF WW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SWWD/WWD BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR ACROSS SRN HILL
COUNTRY TO UVA/DRT AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

29679340 29709291 29979262 30719236 31059194 30769164
29929128 29189164 29459339 28659512 28919530 28849554
29209586 28969628 29279668 29079690 29389722 29139759
29449812 29119840 29339896 30169909 30819902 31379730
31339556 30989492 30099441 

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