[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141605 
TXZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SE TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 141605Z - 141900Z

RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM ONGOING
ACTIVITY OVER LIMESTONE/FREESTONE COUNTIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MERGE
THEN SHIFTS SWD/SEWD TOWARD CLL REGION...AND ALSO...FROM ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WSWWD TOWARD TPL/AUS AREA. 
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE ACROSS MUCH OF
DISCUSSION AREA.  MERGING AND TRAINING OF CORES WILL PROLONG HEAVY
RAIN RATES IN SOME LOCALES...ENHANCING THIS HAZARD.  

REF WW 349 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR SVR THREAT OVER
THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION TO IMPACT ON SVR POTENTIAL...LARGE
BUOYANCY RESULTING FROM STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC HEATING
OF MOIST INFLOW SECTOR WILL AID PRECIP PRODUCTION...AMIDST FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.  SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70 F ARE ANALYZED IN
PROSPECTIVE INFLOW SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX...AND SHOULD NOT MIX
AWAY GIVEN STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT FARTHER S IN CRP RAOB.  12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSES SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE SFC MAXIMIZED IN DRT-LFK
CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS 17-20 DEG C AT 925 MB...AND 13-15 DEC G
AT 850 MB.  GPS-PW DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW IN 1.25-1.5
INCH RANGE...LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS
OVER LOWER SABINE RIVER AREA SHOULD STALL PARALLEL TO AND JUST E OF
I-45 FROM SAN JACINTO COUNTY NWD...ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
PROVIDING BOTH A FOCUS AND ERN BOUND FOR GREATEST RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

29979784 29919820 30489830 30839824 31389814 31389703
31769679 31859637 31749606 31479582 30949558 30669538 

WWWW