[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141404 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-141530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX...LA...SRN/WRN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...

VALID 141404Z - 141530Z

REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY SHORTLY.  MAIN SEVERE EMPHASIS NEXT 2-3
HOURS MAY BE BETWEEN POE-LCH...AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
ANGELINA/JASPER COUNTY BOW ECHO FORCES ASCENT IN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  MCS WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 1.75 INCH
DIAMETER SHOULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF WW AND TOWARD GULF COAST OF SWRN
LA/EXTREME SE TX THROUGH 19Z.  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE
AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS HEATS...MIXES...DESTABILIZES AND COUPLES
TO WHAT IS NOW ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BACKBUILD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE PRESENT...AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW
POINTS S AND SE OF CENTRAL TX BAROCLINIC ZONE...COVERING MOST OF
S-CENTRAL/SE TX.  NRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN CRP RAOB IS
INDEFINITE BUT MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
PENDING MORE INTENSE HEATING AND/OR FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW FROM SE TX
ACTIVITY.

SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE MRGL WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS LA/MS
GULF COASTAL PLAIN AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH...WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ABOVE SFC AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SFC MOIST
ADVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW AND MID/UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS UPSTREAM...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES INDICATE PRONOUNCED DRYING
ABOVE. HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY STEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES AND HELP MAINTAIN GUSTS/HAIL TO SFC IN MOST INTENSE
CELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

32029691 32189546 31639382 32509253 32788997 30748883
29969041 29479184 29769321 29279484 29739902 31899778 

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