[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 140237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140237 
TXZ000-OKZ000-140400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140237Z - 140400Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 03 AND 04Z.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

02Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED QUASI-STATIONARY OR WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SURFACE LOW N OF MAF ENEWD THROUGH NRN TX AND THEN
INTO CNTRL OR SRN AR.  AS MENTIONED IN 01Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...14/00Z FTW SOUNDING INDICATED A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
ACROSS WARM SECTOR.  VWP TRENDS FROM DYESS AFB INDICATE THAT LLJ HAS
INTENSIFIED TO 30-40 KTS OVER THE PAST HOUR...WHICH IS LIKELY
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER NWRN TX...AND
EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING CAP.  LATEST SHORT-TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BETWEEN 14/03-04Z ALONG OR SLIGHTLY N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 8-8.5 C/KM / AND A
POTENTIALLY MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS / MUCAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG /  SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BEING FROM LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

33080000 33930022 34359962 34489862 34289716 34159591
33679526 33059561 32659687 32839911 

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