[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 00:53:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140051 
GAZ000-ALZ000-140145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140051Z - 140145Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE E OF WW 344
INTO W-CNTRL GA AFTER 0130-0200Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NERN MS /E OF TUP/ SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL AL INTO THE FL PNHDL. 
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THIS BOUNDARY...DRIVEN BY INTENSIFYING
WSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL...IS LIKELY SUPPORTING
ONGOING TSTMS SE OF BHM.  INSPECTION OF 14/00Z BHM SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY BASED AT 850 MB WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN
AROUND 1500 J/KG.  POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE RATHER STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
REGION.  INFLUX OF POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SW
ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON UPSHEAR PART OF COMPLEX.  SEVERE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A
COLD POOL...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

33588518 33678468 33578389 32948347 32148395 32148467
32478498 32768510 

WWWW