[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 13 18:40:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131837 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN GA...SRN/WRN AL...NRN FL
PANHANDLE...NRN/ERN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131837Z - 132030Z

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
21Z.  SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS...VIS SATELLITE TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS
ALL SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX....AS OF
18Z...MOVING SWD ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS LINE FROM EARLY COUNTY GA TO NRN
COVINGTON COUNTY AL.  BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER
WNWWD FROM BUTLER COUNTY AL TO NEAR MEI AND DIFFUSE NNWWD BETWEEN
TUP-GWO.  IT SHOULD STALL WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR NRN BORDER
OF FL PANHANDLE WITH SWRN GA.  THOUGH CINH IS WEAKENING ON BOTH
SIDES...BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL FOCUS MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND SFC VORTICITY...AND SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AIR MASS NW OF
OUTFLOW POOL ACROSS NRN MS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ALSO BASED ON
ACARS/RUC SOUNDINGS AND WILL SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.

MODIFIED RAOBS AS WELL AS WRF AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH
VANISHES WITH SFC TEMPS LOW 80S F...AS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR ON
SRN/WARM SIDE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S...WHICH
CHARACTERIZE COOL NRN SIDE.  LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH WWD
EXTENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL MLCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/ERN MS TO
500 J/KG OR LESS SWRN GA/NRN FL PANHANDLE.  RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER OVER WARM SECTOR LIMITS CAPE...BUT ALSO SUPPORT MAINTAINING
INTENSITY OF HAIL/GUSTS FROM DOWNDRAFT ORIGINS DOWN TO SFC.  THOUGH
SFC FLOW IS WEAK...DEEPER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS
AND BOWS...WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

30928607 31658801 32908958 34189074 34969002 34748839
33748813 32628770 31548590 31368488 31278457 30868437
30578440 30558490 30808574 