[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101934 
TXZ000-102130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101934Z - 102130Z

SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
FROM SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTH TX. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ONE
OR MORE WW/S BY 21Z.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
FROM JUST NORTH OF HOUSTON SWWD ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MLCAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINING. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT /WHICH IS 2 KM DEEP PER RECENT GRK VWP DATA/ SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW /30 KTS/ AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. 

FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AS WELL. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CAP THAN FURTHER NORTH /PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING/ MAY DELAY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR ANOTHER FEW MORE HRS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. AGAIN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT
QUICKLY AFTER ANY STORM INITIATION. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST THAT THE WIND THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN
THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

31169486 29999676 28899810 27119913 26669912 26339880
26009808 26179791 26959748 28299676 29379478 

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