[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101838 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH...WRN/NRN IND AND ECENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101838Z - 102045Z

ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BNDRY FROM ECENTRAL IL
NEWD INTO SCENTRAL LOWER MI MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GENERAL MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE SVR THREAT SUGGESTS A LIMITED NEED FOR A WW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR STL NEWD TO CMI TO SBN TO BTL.
ALTHOUGH A BROAD AREA OF CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...
SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITED /6 DEG
C/KM/...LAPSE RATES IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER LAYER /3-5 KM/ WHERE
MORE ROBUST /7 DEG C/KM/. REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATE NLY FLOW IN THE
0-3 KM LAYER...WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ABOVE THIS LAYER.
THUS...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS MODEST /30-35 KTS/ AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MUCAPES FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

42718576 42178626 41128741 40488828 39248866 38998844
39238789 40108659 40978538 41728466 42468414 42738447